But because both Lindenwood and Southern Indiana — each playing in Friday’s OVC semifinals — are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, we may be just hours away from finding out whether the league’s automatic berth will go to Tennessee Tech or Western Illinois.
Eight more automatic bids will be won Sunday, including in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. And by the end of Monday, the Big East will join the party, marking the end of play for the traditional power conferences.
This is the last chance for teams on the bubble to make a statement to the selection committee. And sometimes, those games come against one another.
On Wednesday, a surging Washington team in the Last Four In took on a Minnesota team in the First Four Out.
Washington advanced, and even after a Thursday loss to Michigan, the Huskies appear likely to end on the right side of the bubble while Minnesota, which won just two of its final 10 games, does not.
It was a similar story Thursday as Colorado took down Arizona to reenter the field while the Wildcats’ late-season push came up short.
But some teams don’t make it long enough to play a make-or-break game. One of those teams is Stanford. The Cardinal have made 36 straight NCAA Tournaments, but will almost certainly not hear their name called on Selection Sunday after losing to No. 14 seed Clemson in the opening round of the ACC Tournament.
Stanford’s historic NCAA Tournament streak likely ending: Analyzing what went wrong, how Cardinal can rebound
Jack Maloney
Stanford’s historic NCAA Tournament streak likely ending: Analyzing what went wrong, how Cardinal can rebound
It was far from the week’s only upset. In the SEC, Tennessee was stunned at home by Georgia to end the regular season and then lost to Vanderbilt in the second round of its conference tournament while Florida shocked Alabama later in the day.
Now, the Lady Vols and Crimson Tide appear to have missed out on a top 16 spot while a different SEC team, Ole Miss, is fighting to join that group after back-to-back Quad-1 wins.
Here’s where things stand ahead of a busy few days. We’ll be back Tuesday when the dust settles.
No. 1 seeds
Texas (29-2, 15-1 SEC): NET 3
Despite being the projected No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, Texas is not the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament thanks to losing an actual coin flip against South Carolina (can we get some better tiebreakers moving forward?)
The Longhorns still picked up a few wins — both against Florida to end the regular season and in Madison Booker being named SEC Player of the Year. Texas is one victory away from its first back-to-back 30-win seasons since the late 1980s.
*USC (26-2, 17-1 Big Ten): NET 6
After completing the season sweep against UCLA, the Trojans are nearly guaranteed a No. 1 seed, but they shouldn’t take their foot off the gas pedal quite yet given the strength of the top six teams in the country.
In its first season in the Big Ten, USC won its first regular-season conference title since 1994 and has lost just a single game in the last 100 days.
UCLA (27-2, 16-2 Big Ten): NET 5
UCLA has never been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. While its chances of making history aren’t quite what they were a few weeks ago, this team still has 11 Quad-1 wins and is clearly on the top line right now.
If the Bruins make the Big Ten championship (which requires beating Nebraska and then either Ohio State or Iowa), they should be fine, particularly if they run into USC in the Big Ten championship. I don’t think a UCLA team that’s lost to just one other school misses out.
But if UCLA loses either of its next two games, it could get dicey.
*South Carolina (27-3, 15-1 SEC): NET 2
Dawn Staley believes her team is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now. While I personally believe this team deserves a No. 1 seed regardless of what happens between now and Selection Sunday, the Gamecocks can’t afford a slip-up given how they were punished for the UConn loss.
The Huskies (and Fighting Irish of Notre Dame) will be looking to pounce on a South Carolina slip-up. The Gamecocks begin the SEC Tournament against Vanderbilt.
No. 2 seeds
Notre Dame (25-4, 16-2 ACC): NET 4
Perhaps the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament was a blessing in disguise. Notre Dame will avoid both teams it lost to in the regular season (NC State and Florida State) and North Carolina until a potential ACC championship.
That’s not to take away from ACC quarterfinal opponent California or possible semifinal opponents Duke and Louisville, but the Irish have had fairly comfortable wins over all three in the last month.
*UConn (28-3, 18-0 Big East): NET 1
Even by its lofty standards, UConn’s domination of the Big East season was impressive. If this was the College Football Playoff, the Huskies would have a No. 1 seed as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions.
Locked into at least a No. 2 seed, UConn can crack the top line with a Big East Tournament title and the right combination of results ahead of it.
LSU (27-4, 12-4 SEC): NET 10
After a pair of losses down the stretch, LSU is no longer a No. 1 seed contender and instead should be focused on holding onto a suddenly tenuous hold on a No. 2 seed.
Flau’Jae Johnson is out for the SEC Tournament, but the Tigers got a gift when Florida beat Alabama. There is now a very winnable path to the SEC Semis, where either Texas or Ole Miss awaits.
*NC State (24-5, 16-2 ACC): NET 16
NC State seems to be fighting with LSU and TCU for the final No. 2 seeds, although I’m not ready to rule out the other teams on the No. 3 line should they win their conference tournament.
Incredibly, the Wolfpack has defeated each of the ACC’s three other double-bye teams (Notre Dame, Duke, Florida State) since the start of February. After starting the season 4-3, NC State has lost just twice since the start of December and has sneaky victories like Ole Miss and James Madison that are looking better and better.
No. 3 seeds
*TCU (28-3, 16-2 Big 12): NET 8
The game between TCU and Baylor for the Big 12 regular-season title was a low-scoring affair at 51-48, but TCU was able to capture its first conference championship as a member of the conference.
Now with a season sweep over Baylor, the Horned Frogs are up to seven Quad-1 wins, one more than either LSU or NC State in the close No. 2 seed battle.
Duke (23-7, 14-4 ACC): NET 7
With three straight wins to close the regular season, Duke is back in a rhythm. Toby Fournier has led the way, as the freshman is averaging 23 points and more than seven rebounds per game over the win streak.
Now, the Blue Devils draw Louisville, the last team they lost to, in the start of a difficult ACC Tournament draw.
Oklahoma (24-6, 11-5 SEC): NET 14
Reagan Beers is averaging 24 points per game over her last five contests while shooting 79.7% from the field (47 of 59). That’s just silly. Eight straight wins have taken Oklahoma from a team in the No. 6-7 seed range to a No. 3 seed with a ton of momentum heading into the SEC quarterfinals.
But how much of a true contender are the Sooners? They went 0-4 this season against SEC teams that received a double-bye in the conference tournament, but can pick up a win Friday against Kentucky.
North Carolina (26-6, 13-5 ACC): NET 20
The last week hasn’t exactly inspired confidence for Tar Heel fans. First, UNC lost at home to a Virginia team outside of the NCAA Tournament picture. They followed it up by entering the fourth quarter tied against Boston College in the ACC second round before winning by seven.
Performances like these won’t help North Carolina take down Florida State in the ACC quarterfinals or fulfill its aspirations of a deep NCAA Tournament run.
No. 4 seeds
Maryland (23-6, 13-5 Big Ten): NET 25
Sarah Te-Biasu’s electric overtime game-winning 3-pointer against Ohio State likely gave Maryland an NCAA Tournament hosting position and kept a No. 3 seed in play.
Outside of a tough two weeks beginning in late January, the Terrapins have looked menacing, profiling as an elite offense and a team skilled at crashing the glass and getting to the free throw line.
Kentucky (22-6, 11-5 SEC): NET 19
Similar to Oklahoma, its SEC quarterfinals opponent, Kentucky is without question a strong team, although questions remain about its ability to pull off the big upset.
They did well to hang in the game at South Carolina on Sunday and are the final team here that I would consider very likely to host games, but can Kentucky make an Elite Eight or Final Four run?
Kansas State (26-6, 13-5 Big 12): NET 9
The benefactor of losses by other teams, Kansas State has gone just 4-4 over the past month but remains a No. 4 seed for now. Friday’s game against West Virginia could be the Wildcats’ first win over an NCAA Tournament team since beating TCU on Feb. 5.
However, an early Big 12 Tournament exit could easily see them sliding down to the No. 5 line over the next few days.
Ohio State (24-5, 13-5 Big Ten): NET 18
With four different leading scorers in its last seven games, Ohio State has the ability to win in different ways. That can prove valuable in the NCAA Tournament if teams aren’t able to game plan on stopping any one player individually.
The Big Ten has a wealth of teams that seem capable of getting hot and potentially making a run. Iowa is near the top of that list and will play Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals.
